SUMMARY TABLE

NUMBER OF HOUSE SEATS LOST BY INCUMBENT PRESIDENT'S PARTY DURING MIDTERM ELECTIONS (1902-2010)

*Mean* *Median* *Range*

First Term Incumbents (16) 31.6 **24.5 ** 76 - (gain of 9)

All Midterms (27) 32.3 28 81 - (gain of 9)

All Second Term Incumbents (12) 33.2 31 81 - (gain of 5)

Second term Incumbents 34.6 **39 ** 81 - (gain of 5)

(6 yrs or more only) (8)

*Source: Wikipedia*

THE IMPLICATIONS

As previously noted, there are essentially three possible outcomes for President Obama and his party following the 2014 election:

**D's take control of the House. **If the D's flip the House and keep the Senate, President Obama should be able to pass a good portion of his remaining legislative wish list;
**No change in control of either house. **If the D's do not flip control of the House but manage to keep control of the Senate, then the current level of gridlock and frustration is likely to continue;
**R's take control of the Senate. **If the D's fail to take control of the House and also lose the Senate, then the President becomes a very lame (i.e., crippled) duck and the Administration's last two years will likely be very difficult.

The significance of the above data is that the most likely scenario is for the R's to continue to hold the House in 2014 (possibly adding to their majority). A similar analysis for the Senate races indicates that while the R's also have a path to take control of the Senate in 2014, the odds of that happening are less than 50-50. See

http://egopnews.com/Schott_13August15.htm.

Taken together, this makes the most likely prospect for President Obama's last two years to be a classic lame duck scenario.

That said, it is important to appreciate that the *savants* in the President's political operation are working hard to find a wedge issue (or issues) that will not only divide Republicans from each other, but which are important to the average otherwise uncommitted voter. The only good news for the R's is that these kinds of issues you can usually see coming (such as the debt-ceiling or a government shut down) and that the decision to engage on them is typically in Republican hands.

The D's are also subject to their own vulnerabilities, including potential fallout from Obamacare implementation, the continuing bad economy or further perceived foreign policy ineptitude.

*In short, it now appears likely to be an "either/or" situation; where the traditional "either" of R gains as the "out party" is substantially more likely than an unprecedented "or" scenario that depends on current House R's being unable to resist a temptation to self-destruct. *

It will be interesting to see if anyone takes the bait.

TABLES

**I. All midterm elections since 1902:**

TABLE FOR SHIFTS IN HOUSE SEATS IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS IN FAVOR OF PARTY NOT HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE (1902-2010)

**House Midterm Results (1902-2010). **Since 1902, the following swings toward the party not occupying the White House have occurred in House mid-term elections:

**>60 seats - four times**: 1938 (R's +81); 1922 (D's +76); 2010 (R's +63); 1914 (R's +62)

**>50 seats - four times**: 1910 (D's +58); 1946 (R's +54); 1994 (R's +54); 1930 (D's +52)

**>40 seats - four times**: 1958 (D's +49); 1974 (D's +49); 1942 (R's +47); 1966 (R's +47)

**>30 seats - one time**: 2006 (D's +31)

**>20 seats - four times**: 1950 (R's +28); 1902 (D's +25)*; 1918 (R's +25); 1982 (D's +24)

**>10 seats - three times**: 1954 (D's +19); 1978 (R's +15); 1970 (D's +12)

**>0 seats - four times**: 1926 (D's +9); 1990 (D's +7); 1986 (D's +5); 1962 (R's +2)

**<0 seats - three times**: 1998 (D's +5); 2002 (R's +8); 1934 (D's +9)

**Total Mid-term elections** since 1902:

**27**
**Average swing: ****32**
**Median swing** in mid-term elections since 1902: 28 seats

*Source: Wikipedia*
* The size of the House was expanded in 1902 from 355 to 386 members. The D's gained 25 seats and the R's gained 7, with the D's gaining a net of 18 seats.

*II. Midterms held during a President's first term:*
TABLE FOR SHIFTS IN HOUSE SEATS IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS DURING PRESIDENT'S FIRST TERM IN FAVOR OF THE PARTY NOT HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE (1902-2010)

**>60 seats - three times**: 1922 (D's +76); 2010 (R's +63); 1914 (R's +62)

**>50 seats - four times**: 1910 (D's +58); 1946 (R's +54); 1994 (R's +54); 1930 (D's +52)

**>40 seats - none**
**>30 seats - none**
**>20 seats - two times**: 1902 (D's +25)*; 1982 (D's +24)

**>10 seats - three times**: 1954 (D's +19); 1978 (R's +15); 1970 (D's +12)

**>0 seats - two times**: 1990 (D's +7); 1962 (R's +2)

**<0 seats - two times**: 2002 (R's +8); 1934 (D's +9)

**Total First Mid-term elections** since 1902:

**16 of 27**
**Average swing: ****32** seats

**Median swing** in mid-term elections since 1902:

**24-25** seats

*Source: Wikipedia*
*III. Midterms held during a President's second or third term:*

TABLE FOR SHIFTS IN HOUSE SEATS IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS DURING A PRESIDENT'S SECOND OR THIRD TERMS (INCLUDING SECOND TERMS OF PRESIDENTS WHO BECAME PRESIDENT DUE TO DEATH OF THEIR PREDECESSOR) IN FAVOR OF PARTY NOT HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE (1902-2010)

**>60 seats - one time**: 1938 (R's +81);

**>50 seats - none**
**>40 seats - four times**: 1958 (D's +49); 1974 (D's +49); 1942 (R's +47); 1966 (R's +47)

**>30 seats - one time**: 2006 (D's +31)

**>20 seats - two times**: 1950 (R's +28); 1918 (R's +25)

**>10 seats - none**
**>0 seats - two times**: 1926 (D's +9); 1986 (D's +5)

**<0 seats - one time**: 1998 (D's +5)

**Total second Mid-term elections** since 1902:

**11 out of 27**
**Average swing:**** 33** seats

**Median swing** in mid-term elections since 1902: 31 seats

*Source: Wikipedia*
*IV. Midterms held during the sixth year (or later) of a President's time in office:*
TABLE FOR SHIFTS IN HOUSE SEATS IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS DURING A PRESIDENT'S SECOND OR THIRD TERMS (NOT INCLUDING SECOND TERMS OF PRESIDENTS WHO BECAME PRESIDENT DUE TO DEATH OF THEIR PREDECESSOR) IN FAVOR OF THE PARTY NOT HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE (1902-2010)

**>60 seats - one time**: 1938 (R's +81);

**>50 seats - none**
**>40 seats - three times**: 1958 (D's +49); 1974 (D's +49); 1942 (R's +47)

**>30 seats - one time**: 2006 (D's +31)

**>20 seats - one time**: 1918 (R's +25)

**>10 seats - none**
**>0 seats - one time**: 1986 (D's +5)

**<0 seats - one time**: 1998 (D's +5)

**Total Mid-term elections** since 1902:

**8 out of 27 **

*Average swing: *35 seats

**Median swing** in mid-term elections since 1902:

**39-40** seats

*Source: Wikipedia*